Pilot Projection Calculator Assumptions

This Calculator uses the following hiring pilot demand models.

The Calculator uses the 50% mark in Seniority as a conservative estimate for upgrade time at each individual airline. Obviously most places will probably see upgrades before this due to a percentage of FO's opting to remain FO's for QOL reasons.

The pay schedule for a particular model, estimates the number of time spent in each equipment type by taking into account the percent of the fleet each type represents. For example if MD90's represent 30% of the total fleet then a 11 year average upgrade could expect a little over 3 years as an FO in the MD90. The Capt upgrades apply a longer window to keep the model conservative, it assumes the average time at the mainline carrier will be 30 years before retirement.

The Regional Model unfortunately is only FO and CAPT Jet Rates, for simplicity purposes. RJ rates are assumed for all of the regional options, for now. On more complex airlines like Republic, I apply a conservative scale to show progression through Republic's multi-type jets. The number of years each aircraft type receives is weighted by the percentage that particular fleet type represents in the total fleet.

Regional Wage is calculated by taking hourly wage multiplied by 80 hours a month. Mainline Wage is calculated by taking the hourly wage and retirement contribution percentage multiplied by 75 hours per month.

The right side of each wage column is a year over year accrual of wages from the start year till retirement. This year over year accrual applies your selected rate as an annual interest rate for each year. This would be your how you value your present money verse future money. For example 1000 dollars in your pocket today, is more valuable than 1000 dollars next year in your pocket. The 1000 dollars in your pocket today could be invested, or consumed.

This is a good article to explain the difference between present and future value of money.

To keep things simple no inflation is considered. Making this assumption assumes over the life of this model Professional Pilot compensation will match inflation.

As a reminder this model is just a rough estimate over the next 20 years, and just applys this estimate to pay. As with anything, compensation is only a small part of any career decision, the company culture, management team, and QOL are large factors.

Some things that might make this model obsolete.

  • Regional Consolidation, and Capacity Reduction ( This model assumes stagnant regional capacity)
  • Inflation
  • Mainline Consolidation