The Regional Airline model is up and running! Building off of and dependent on the Mainline Hiring Model, it should be of help to those interested in becoming pilots and those who are preparing to make a decision of which Regional to try to be hired by.
The Major Airlines Model is Programmed to build a hiring model off of Mandatory Retirements, Current Furloughs/Reasonable Recall Rates, and Current Major Airline Aircraft Orders and Retirements(after 2020 assumes Boeings 2.3% Domestic Growth Projection).
That model has been tied to a Regional Airlines Pilot Hiring model which has been designed to build its hiring model off of Current Regional Airline Fleet Projections(released in annual reports), Attrition from Major Airlines taken from the Major Airlines Model (Calculates a percentage Attrition based off of total Regional Airline Industry Size, and demand from mainline- this percentage is applied to each airline in each year based upon its share of regional airline pilots) , and Flow Through Agreements.
It calculates attrition to mainline based upon the size of the regional airline pool. For example if the total Regional Industry has 10,000 pilots one year and during that year mainline is projected to hire 1000 we can assume roughly 10% of any given Regional's pilot group will go during that year. So for an airline with 3000 pilots, they can expect to lose 300 that year to mainline attrition.
Building on this model Pilots can see what estimated upgrade(50% seniority) time will be on the bottom of each page, with each respective airline, through the upgrade calculator. This calculator pulls its data from the Seniority Chart that shows progression as airlines shrink/grow and as people leave to the Majors. I'm hoping this information will be helpful to pilots and those interested in pursuing a career as pilots, to have a better expectation for what industry hold in regards to career progression.
A couple of disclaimers the regional model is very fluid at this moment and so it is possible for orders to happen quickly- however the larger the airline the less effect 10 or 20 aircraft have on Seniority Progression. For example a small airline with few airplanes will see very quick upgrades when receiving the same number of aircraft. Also some of the airlines are Privately owned and therefore are not required to disclose their aircraft projections. These have been built with current publicly available information. Enjoy!